Rebecca's Page

These pages have been posted to increase awareness of the impact of Government Transport Policies and Taxes on those who live in rural areas of Britain, the effect on their lives, and examine the reasons given (and hidden!).

In the long term the most significant will be the Government's current transport policy- with it's planned rises in Fuel duty that will continue for the forseeable future. We already have some of the highest Petrol and Diesel prices in Europe. These planned increases will double those prices within 8 years! Are these rises justified and how will they effect the lives of people living in the country areas of the UK? Much of the justification for these changes is concern about Global warming. The case for this is far from proven and there is good reason to think that the scare of global warming is being used to introduce social and economic policies that would be totally unacceptable to the general public in their own right. There is a need to examine the arguments carefully, not just accept that ‘global warming is all our own fault’ and (other?) people will have to stop using their cars!

Content 1- The Policy; 2- Financial costs; 3- Impact on Rural Life; 4- The Environmental Debate 5- What can we do about it?

 

Government Policy

It is declared goverment policy to restrict traffic growth. They intend to do this by a mixture of direct restrictions on traffic movement and by increasing indirect taxes to deter the personal use of cars. Most of these are still vague statements of intent but one tax rise has been fully spelt out- the Government has committed itself to raise the tax on road fuels annually by 6% over and above inflation. By 2006 this will have increased the cost of petrol at the pump to some £6 per gallon.

The question must be asked- What is it all in aid of? If it is to reduce congestion in our cities then it will be at a price of restricting national growth and curtailing everyone’s personal freedom. -Is it right that this cost should fall be paid by everyone- with the greatest bills falling on those who live furthest from the cities? - If it is to minimise our effect on Global Warming then we must be sure that it is an necessary and effective action. There is much evidence that the Earths climate change is only marginally affected by CO2 emissions and that the proposed policies are only pointless gestures. So much of the scientific evidence is being ignored.

Government Transport policy appears to be driven by three factors:-

• Congestion
• Environmental issues
• Finance (Money!)

Congestion appears to be easy topic to tackle- it is a result of too many people wanting to use the same road space! The favoured solution is to restrict them and/or tax them more. These are crude solutions that penalise people regardless of circumstances and where they live. Traffic levels are unlikely to increase to the extent forecast by the DOE. People adapt their travel patterns when faced with unacceptable delays. Congestion is a localised problem - it should not be dealt with by nationwide restrictions.

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The Financial Cost

Many new taxes have been trailed to test reactions, among them:-

1. Congestion taxes to enter a city area
2. Taxes on business parking areas
3. Tax on out-of-town Supermarket parking

No costs have been set against these yet, but one thing is certain- as they are meant to deter people from using their cars then these charges will be high.

One tax that can be quantified now is the intention to raise Road Fuel Taxes by 6% each year over and above inflation. No end point has been set for these increases! If we assume inflation will average ~3% over the next 10 years then petrol will increase in cost-

1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009
£3.07	£3.35	£3.65	£3.98	£4.34	£4.73	£5.16	£5.62	£6.13	£6.68	£7.28	£7.93

This tax increase will be very costly for many rural housholds. By 2007 a gallon of petrol will cost over £6. With a yearly mileage of 20,000 miles (-a common mileage for families living 10 miles from their places of work, shopping centres and community activities, needing more than one car to work in different places and ferry children everywhere!) -then this will result in in an additional tax burden of £1500 each year. Do the sums- this is the equivalent of adding 10 pence in the pound to a typical income tax bill!! ("We won't raise your taxes......")

This is going to raise a lot of additional money for the Government. At present, Road Fuel taxes raised £18 Billion in 1997. This will grow to £40 Billion by 2007. Is this being done solely to improve the environment? I think NOT!

The impact on rural life

Life in rural areas of the UK has been reshaped in this century by the availability of cheap personal transport. New housing is no longer built close to railway lines and bus routes as it was in the 19th century. People no longer live close to where they work. The journey-to-work pattern for those working outside cities is a complex web of routes that is now impossible to unravel. The increasing mobility of the population has dispersed family members around the country in such a way that significant journeys are often made to maintain family ties and commitments.

To maintain that this is being imposed to encourage greater use of public transport is disingenuous. There is no way that any envisaged public transport could meet but a tiny fraction of travelling needs in most rural locations. (and, anyway, are nearly empty buses more efficient than the eqivalent numbers of modern cars?)

Attempting to tax people out of travel patterns that have been built up over decades will be a costly business that, if successful, will greatly diminish the standard of life for all those who live in rural areas and in many cases, isolate people from their families and friends.

It will greatly add to the cost of going to work, buying food and household supplies. People travel distances to a supermarket for a simple reason- they are cheaper and more convenient than smaller, more local shops. Any attempt at socially engineering a reversal of this trend must force up costs and reduce the choice available to shoppers. A secondary effect of this is that people will buy fewer goods- again winding down the overall economy.

The deterrent to travel will impose an isolation on 'ordinary' people, particularly the youngest and elderly. Certainly it will make it far harder for young people in rural areas to find work that they can afford to take up. A crucial factor for so many has been the ability to run a cheap ‘old banger’ that has enabled them to find work!

It will also, in effect, be a restriction on peoples freedom to travel- what price the "right to roam" for which many have ardently campaigned when people will not be able to afford to visit the countryside and ‘roam’. (Perhaps that is one of the hidden objectives?)

The Environmental Debate

There is no doubt that the earth’s climate is changing and it IS getting warmer- but that is not unusual - our earth’s climate is always changing! It is mistaken to assume that the climate we experience in our childhood will be maintained. We know that the Earth has undergone many ice ages- extremes of cold separated by very warm periods. That is the unavoidable pattern of the planet we live on. Among known causes are astronomical factors such as:-

• Variations in the Earths orbit around the Sun- a 21,000 year cycle
• The Earths axis wobbles in a 41,000 year precession
• The Suns energy output varying over a 100,000 year cycle.

Factors such as these are constantly changing the Earth’s climate, warming or cooling it as geological records show. The important question in the current debate is whether man’s activities are making changes that are at all significant in the scale of immense astronomical events.

The present phase of Global warming started some 18,000 years ago, ending millennia when the Northern and Southern latitudes were covered in ice sheets. Since then warming has caused the glaciers to shrink to a tiny percentage of their original size. However it has not been a steady growth in temperature, -in medieval times northern temperatures were high enough for vineyards in Greenland to be followed in the 1400s by a mini-ice-age when it was common for the Thames to freeze over. If you look at the earths history over millions of years you will see that there have been many ice-ages.

Against this constantly changing pattern what effect are man’s activities having? In 'popular' wisdom - it’s all our fault! - But is it? After all, significant industrial development has only taken place over the last 100 - 150 years. Estimates of warming over the past few decades vary wildly. The latest satellite measurements cast doubt on measurements made on the earth’s surface and indicate that warming is significantly less than previously claimed. There is a lot of reasoned evidence available that indicates that our activities have very little effect on the earths climate compared with natural changes that have been happening for millenia. The short answer is that we do not know the extent that we are influencing climate change and that it is far too early to tell. It is probable that the changes we may make will be tiny against natural events.

Should we make far reaching changes to our living standards and national prosperity on what little is known to date? The costs involved are enormous! If you look at the repeated glacial cycles over millions of years you could conclude that the real longterm threat is a return to an ice-age. I invite you to visit some of these sites and assess the evidence for yourselves.

Links

What can you do about it?

Do you care that concern about global warming is being used by politicians as a justification for raising taxes in a major way and to curtail the freedom of travel of large numbers of people in rural areas? Ask yourself is the case sufficiently proven to justify these actions? -Follow up some of the links I have provided and form your own opinion! If you are concerned at the course of action that the government is taking,

1. Make other people aware of it.

2. Write to your MP- Ask how "for how many years will fuel duty be increased in this way". Ask him if has he studied the real reasons for global warming. You can email your MP by going to the search page at:- House of Commons Constituency Locata

3. If you would like to add to the content of this page, either by adding a link or direct contribution, mail me:-